NASHVILLE — Bracing for expected state funding reductions of 10 percent to 15 percent next year, Tennessee higher education officials said Thursday they hope to avoid huge tuition hikes and may cut programs and personnel, cap enrollment and make major changes in how state schools operate.

At a meeting of the Tennessee Higher Education Commission, however, officials quickly distanced themselves from a commission document noting that a 15 percent cut in state appropriations could be offset at universities and community colleges with 24 percent and 29 percent tuition jumps, respectively.

Commission Executive Director Richard Rhoda said the purpose of the figures was to show how “the dollar amount of the appropriation reduction would equate to that kind of tuition increase.”

“But no one is talking about anything even remotely close to that,” he said.

Higher education officials are scrambling to comply with Gov. Phil Bredesen’s orders that they prepare cuts of between 10 percent and 15 percent for the upcoming 2009-10 fiscal year budget. Faced with falling revenues and a possible deep, painful recession, the governor is grappling with a projected $800 million shortfall in the current fiscal year and similar reductions next fiscal year.

While not ruling out tuition increases of some kind next year, state Board of Regents Chancellor Charles Manning said officials “really have to change how we’re looking at this.”

The system is examining a furlough program for some employees and changing how students’ tuition is assessed, Dr. Manning said. For example, students who come from well-to-do families may end up paying higher tuition than students from low-income households, he said.

University of Tennessee President John Petersen described the challenge as a “balancing act of access, making sure we get the students through ... (and) educate them in a quality fashion and having the resources to do that.”

He pointed out that Florida officials plan to implement enrollment caps. Asked if UT might consider options including that, he said, “I think all of them are options.”

The Bredesen administration already has cut current-year funding for higher education by $90 million. Higher Education Commission figures show a 15 percent cut would mean the loss of another $188.3 million, leaving colleges and universities with a base state budget of $1.067 billion.

State Treasurer Dale Sims called the potential cuts “mind-boggling” and said Tennessee Technological University alone receives $45 million in state appropriations.

“You could close Tennessee Tech and still not get to where you need,” he said.

The University of Tennessee at Chattanooga’s vice president of finance and operation, Dr. Richard Brown, said “these are really tough economic times.”

“It will impact the quality of the institution,” Dr. Brown said.

While cuts are nothing new and are being dictated by the economy, he said the latest proposal would call for “really new, deep, significant cuts. We’re having to reduce faculty positions, operating positions across the institution.”